Research
Research Notes
Notes on liquidity, policy, technology, market structure, and the regimes they produce. Reverse-chronological. Filter by category or tag.
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Reading Liquidity Before Narrative
Why liquidity conditions often move before market narratives become obvious, and how to track them without confusing flows with stories.
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AI Capex and the New Industrial Cycle
How AI infrastructure spending changes the rhythm of technology investment cycles, and where the supply, power, and depreciation constraints actually sit.
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Stablecoins as Dollar Distribution Infrastructure
Stablecoins are not only crypto instruments. They are emerging as a parallel distribution rail for dollar liquidity, with regulatory and macro consequences.
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Investment Regimes, Not Single Forecasts
Why the core question is rarely a single forecast, but which regime the market is migrating into — and how to identify the transition before the consensus does.
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Signals Under Uncertainty
A research note on separating durable signals from narrative noise — what makes a signal informative, falsifiable, and decision-relevant.
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